YouGov/ITV Wales poll shows Plaid Cymru ahead with 43 seats, Reform UK 34 – Fact Check

Claim 1 – Plaid Cymru holds 33% of the Senedd vote share and Reform UK 29% in the final ITV Cymru Wales/YouGov MRP poll.

Evidence – Both the Wales Online report on the poll and YouGov’s own press release list Plaid Cymru at 33% and Reform UK at 29% of the projected vote.

Verdict – True.

Analysis – The two independent sources – a news outlet and the poll sponsor – agree on the percentages, and no contradictory data appear.

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Claim 2 – The YouGov MRP model projects Plaid Cymru to win 43 seats and Reform UK 34 seats in the 96‑member Senedd.

Evidence – The YouGov release and the Wales Online article both state a central estimate of 43 seats for Plaid Cymru and 34 for Reform UK.

Verdict – True.

Analysis – Consistent reporting from the poll’s creators and a reputable news source confirms the seat projections; no other poll contradicts these figures.

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Claim 3 – In the new Fflint Wrecsam constituency, the MRP model projects Plaid Cymru two seats, Reform UK two seats, Welsh Labour one seat, and Welsh Conservatives one seat.

Evidence – The claim appears only in the narrative description of the poll; the detailed constituency‑level breakdown is not present in the publicly released YouGov data or in any independent news coverage.

Verdict – Unverifiable.

Analysis – Without an external source that publishes the constituency‑level allocation, the claim cannot be confirmed. The poll’s overall figures are reliable, but the specific split for Fflint Wrecsam remains unsubstantiated.

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What to watch next – As election day approaches, compare the final poll’s projections with actual results and monitor any detailed constituency releases that could confirm or refute the Fflint Wrecsam seat allocation.