Yara CEO Warns Iran Conflict Halts 500,000 Tons of Fertiliser, Threatening 10 Billion Meals Weekly

TL;DR: The Iran war has halted about 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertiliser worldwide, risking up to 10 billion missed meals each week and pushing fertiliser prices up 80%.

The conflict in the Gulf has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for roughly one‑third of global fertiliser supplies. Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, reports that production of half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser has stopped because of the hostilities.

Nitrogen fertiliser is essential for converting soil nutrients into crop yields. Without it, yields for staples such as wheat, rice and maize can fall by as much as 50% in the first season. Yara’s CEO Svein Tore Holsether estimates that the shortfall could prevent the production of up to 10 billion meals each week across the globe.

The supply shock has already driven fertiliser prices up 80% since the United States and Israel began military action against Iran. Higher input costs are hitting farmers before crop prices have risen, squeezing profit margins and threatening food affordability, especially in low‑income regions that already suffer from under‑fertilisation.

Asia, sub‑Saharan Africa and Latin America are the primary destinations for the missing fertiliser. In Asia, the impact will surface later in the year when reduced spring plantings translate into smaller harvests. In sub‑Saharan Africa, where many farms already operate with limited fertiliser, the loss could trigger “significant drops” in yields, worsening food insecurity.

The United Nations warns that the broader Middle East conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026. A prolonged shortage may spark a bidding war for food, with wealthier nations outbidding poorer ones, further inflating prices for the most vulnerable.

European policymakers are being urged to consider the downstream effects of a fertiliser price war on global food stability. While the United Kingdom is unlikely to face immediate shortages, food inflation is expected to rise, with forecasts of 10% price growth by year‑end.

What to watch next: Monitor shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and any diplomatic moves that could reopen the route, as well as fertiliser price trends and early harvest reports from Asia and Africa.