US Sanctions Linked to 148% Rise in Cuba Infant Mortality

TL;DR: A CEPR analysis links intensified US sanctions to a 148% jump in Cuba’s infant mortality rate from 4.0 to 9.9 deaths per 1,000 live births between 2018 and 2025, representing roughly 1,800 preventable infant deaths. The report notes severe medicine and fuel shortages, worsened by collapsing tourism income, as key mechanisms.

Context: Cuba’s infant mortality rate measures deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births and is a core indicator of population health. Before 2018, Cuba’s rate was among the lowest in the Western Hemisphere, at 4.3 in 2015, compared with a regional average of 15.6. Starting in 2017, the United States tightened sanctions, activating Title III of the Helms‑Burton Act in 2019 and placing Cuba on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list in 2021, which restricted access to medicine, medical equipment, and fuel.

Key Facts: The CEPR study reviewed Cuba’s national vital statistics, covering every recorded live birth from 2018 to 2025 (approximately 2.4 million births). It found the infant mortality rate rose from 4.0 to 9.9 deaths per 1,000 live births, a 148% increase that translates to about 1,800 preventable infant deaths. Dr. Liliam Delgado Peruyera reported that doctors are seeing far more severe cases, noting three newborn deaths in February—the highest monthly total she could recall. Tourism revenue, a major source of foreign currency, dropped from $3.3 billion in 2017 to $1.3 billion in 2024, recovering to only 40% of the 2017 level after falling to just over $400 million in 2021. Fuel supplies have also been curtailed: Venezuela’s shipments ended after US actions in early 2025, Mexico withdrew under tariff threats, and only a single Russian shipment reached Cuba in late March, leaving hospitals reliant on intermittent power for incubators and ventilators.

What It Means: The report’s design is an observational cohort analysis of national data; it shows a strong association between sanctions and rising infant mortality but cannot prove causation on its own. Researchers note that similar economic strangulation in other developing economies has been linked to higher child mortality, suggesting a plausible pathway. Practical takeaways for policymakers include reviewing humanitarian exemptions for medicines and fuel, monitoring the impact of sanctions on health‑care supply chains, and preparing contingency plans for neonatal care during fuel shortages.

What to watch next: Upcoming US policy reviews on sanctions, any changes to tourism or remittance flows, and quarterly infant mortality trends in Cuba will indicate whether the health crisis is easing or worsening.