UK Government Departments Present Conflicting AI Power Demand Forecasts

Context The UK government pursues dual ambitions: becoming an AI superpower and achieving a decarbonized economy. These objectives rely on separate departmental strategies, now revealing a significant divergence in key projections. This discrepancy highlights challenges in coordinating national infrastructure planning.

Key Facts The Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) projects that AI datacentres will require 6 gigawatts of electricity by 2030. This forecast forms part of its compute roadmap, aiming to expand national AI capacity. Such an increase would necessitate substantial energy infrastructure.

Conversely, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) estimates AI datacentre electricity use will remain under 0.6 gigawatts by 2030. This figure represents less than a tenth of DSIT's projection for the same period. DESNZ incorporates datacentre emissions into its broader commercial services sector forecasts.

DSIT also revised its estimates for AI datacentre emissions. The department now projects 34 to 123 million tonnes of CO₂ over ten years. This revised range accounts for 0.9% to 3.4% of the UK's projected total emissions during that period.

What It Means The considerable difference in electricity demand forecasts between DSIT and DESNZ points to an unaligned approach in strategic planning. A 6-gigawatt demand implies a significant need for new power generation and grid upgrades. A sub-0.6-gigawatt demand suggests a much smaller impact on energy infrastructure.

This divergence affects national planning for energy security and climate targets. Accurate projections are essential for developing sustainable growth strategies for both the AI sector and the wider economy. The carbon budget, managed by DESNZ, relies on clear data for its commitments.

The upcoming Carbon Budget 7, set for release this summer, may offer further clarity. Stakeholders will observe how these differing projections are reconciled within future policy documents.