Thailand Holds Rates at 1% While Cutting 2025 Growth Forecast to 1.6%

Context The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices upward, raising inflationary pressure in import‑dependent Thailand. The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on April 29 and kept the benchmark rate steady while assessing those risks. Thailand’s economy, Southeast Asia’s second‑largest, grew 2.4% last year but has lagged regional peers since the Covid‑19 pandemic.

Key Facts The MPC unanimously voted to keep the one‑day repurchase rate at 1.00%. The Bank of Thailand raised the 2024 growth forecast to 2.1% and lowered the 2025 forecast to 1.6% from the previous 2.0%. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said the revision partly reflects the government’s decision to borrow 400 billion baht to fund spending.

What It Means The steady rate suggests the central bank views current inflation as manageable despite oil‑price spikes. The downgrade to next year’s growth signals concern that fiscal borrowing and external shocks could dampen demand. Investors will watch upcoming inflation data and the government’s borrowing schedule for clues on the Bank of Thailand’s next policy move.