Texas Solar Projected to Surpass Coal Output by 2026

TL;DR: Texas utility-scale solar is forecast to produce 78 billion kilowatt‑hours in 2026, exceeding coal’s expected 60 billion kWh. Solar’s share of ERCOT generation rose from 4% in 2021 to 12% in 2025 and over 75% of new grid interest targets solar and battery storage.

Context: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short‑Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday, projecting generation for Texas’ main grid managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The outlook uses current operating capacity, announced construction plans, and historical growth rates to estimate future output. It assumes no major policy shifts that would alter the pace of solar or coal retirements.

Key Facts: Utility-scale solar generation in Texas is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt‑hours in 2026. Coal‑fired plants in the same region are projected to produce 60 billion kilowatt‑hours that year. Solar’s share of electricity generation within ERCOT grew from 4% in 2021 to 12% in 2025, according to EIA data. ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told a Texas Senate committee in April that more than three‑quarters of the interest in new grid resources is for solar and battery storage.

What It Means: The crossover signals a shift in Texas’ energy mix, with solar poised to deliver more annual electricity than coal for the first time. The 78 billion kWh figure represents roughly 30% of the state’s total electricity demand in recent years, while coal’s 60 billion kWh would supply about 23%. Continued investment in solar and storage could further reduce reliance on fossil fuels and lower emissions. Analysts warn that grid upgrades and market rules will need to keep pace with the rapid influx of variable resources.

What to watch next: Regulators will likely review transmission plans and storage incentives later this year to ensure the grid can absorb the projected solar surge.