Stafford byelection set to deliver LNP historic win, putting Miles’ leadership under scrutiny

TL;DR: The Stafford byelection is poised to deliver the LNP its first win over Labor in half a century, raising questions about Steven Miles’ leadership. A swing of just two percentage points could hand the seat to Fiona Hammond.

Voters in Brisbane’s northern suburb of Stafford went to the polls after the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April. Sullivan had suffered a 6.83% swing against him in the 2024 state election and was expelled from the Labor party in May 2025 over legal and medical concerns.

The seat has been a Labor stronghold since 1989, held by Sullivan’s father from 2001 to 2006 and currently carrying a 5.3% two‑party preferred margin for Labor. It ranked as the 12th‑closest Labor seat at the 2024 election, making it marginal.

Historical note: Byelection swings toward the sitting government are uncommon in Queensland, making any shift toward the LNP noteworthy. Analysts note that even a modest reduction in Labor’s margin would be interpreted as a loss under the current electoral calculus.

Political scientist Paul Williams forecasts that LNP candidate Fiona Hammond will capture 51‑52% of the vote after preferences, a narrow but decisive edge. He notes that if the LNP’s share falls from the historic 55% to 53%, Labor would technically lose the seat.

Such a result would be the first time in 50 years that Queensland Labor loses a byelection to the governing party. The Greens did not issue how‑to‑vote preferences, and One Nation did not nominate a candidate, factors that could influence preference flows only in a very close contest.

Recent polling showed the LNP ahead by roughly two points, aligning with Williams’ projection.

A loss would erase Labor’s long‑standing hold on a marginal Brisbane electorate and increase pressure on opposition leader Steven Miles. Colleagues name shadow treasurer Shannon Fentiman as a potential challenger should Miles step down.

The outcome will test the LNP government’s ability to translate statewide gains into suburban victories.

What to watch next: Post‑poll preference flows and any leadership challenges within Labor will signal whether the byelection result reshapes Queensland’s political landscape.