SoftBank's $60 Billion AI Bet Sparks Insider Doubts Over Altman's Vision

TL;DR: SoftBank’s $60 billion stake in OpenAI reflects a high‑risk wager on artificial general intelligence, prompting internal skepticism as the conglomerate liquidates holdings to sustain the investment.

SoftBank Group Corp (9984.T) has committed roughly $60 billion to OpenAI over the last few years, making it the startup’s largest backer.

The move follows a pattern of Son’s aggressive bets, from Alibaba to WeWork, and now centers on the promise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — AI that can match or exceed human cognitive abilities across tasks.

Critics note that such a bet cannot be hedged because it rests on a worldview rather than a tradable asset.

Habib Imam, a former SoftBank insider now at Menlo Park Capital, told Bloomberg that the deal is “a bet on a worldview about AGI” and that “you can’t hedge a worldview.”

He added that insiders worry about the viability of OpenAI’s promises if the technology fails to generate sufficient revenue to justify the spending.

SoftBank and OpenAI responded that they share a “strong strategic partnership grounded in a shared view of where AI is headed and what it will require at global scale.”

Market data shows SoftBank’s shares trading near ¥6,800, giving the firm a market cap of about $85 billion, down roughly 3 % over the past month.

To fund its OpenAI commitment, SoftBank has sold assets including a stake in Nvidia (NVDA), whose market cap stands near $2.2 trillion and whose stock slipped about 1.5 % week‑to‑date after the divestment.

These moves illustrate the financial pressure on the conglomerate as it balances its balance sheet against a long‑term AI vision.

The skepticism highlights a core tension: massive upfront spending on unproven AGI versus the need for near‑term returns.

If OpenAI cannot monetize its models at scale, SoftBank may face further asset sales or write‑downs, affecting its overall investment capacity.

Conversely, if the AGI thesis proves correct, the early bet could yield outsized returns that reshape the tech landscape.

What to watch next: quarterly earnings from SoftBank and any updates on OpenAI’s revenue trajectory, especially regarding enterprise adoption of its latest models.