SNP Targets Majority to Trigger New Independence Vote as Results Loom

TL;DR: SNP leader John Swinney vows to call another Scottish independence referendum if his party secures a majority in the 129‑seat Parliament; results for pivotal seats, including Aberdeen Central, start arriving at 3:30 pm Friday.

Scots headed to the polls Thursday for the first Holyrood election since 2021. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is campaigning to turn its 64 seats from the last vote into a full majority, a threshold that would give it 65 seats or more.

In 2021 the SNP fell one seat short of that mark, holding 64 of the 129 seats. The Conservatives won 31, Labour 22, the Greens eight and the Liberal Democrats four. The current contest adds new constituency boundaries but retains the same total of 129 seats, split between 73 first‑past‑the‑post constituencies and 56 regional seats allocated by proportional voting.

SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney has made clear his intention: a majority would trigger a new independence referendum. He has only pursued such a vote once in the party’s four recent Holyrood victories, making the promise a focal point of the campaign.

Vote counting will begin after polls close at 10 pm on Thursday. No results will be released overnight; the first declarations are slated for early Friday. The Press Association’s timetable lists Aberdeen Central, Aberdeen Deeside & North Kincardine, Aberdeen Donside, Aberdeenshire East, Aberdeenshire West, Banffshire & Buchan Coast, Dumfriesshire, Galloway & Dumfries West, Scotland North East and several others at 3:30 pm. Other key timings include Airdrie at noon, Ayr at 1 pm, and the high‑profile Glasgow constituencies spread between 2:15 pm and 4:15 pm. The latest counts are expected to finish by 7 pm for the Highlands & Islands region.

The outcome will determine whether the SNP can claim a governing mandate to revisit the independence question. A majority would give Swinney the parliamentary leverage to schedule a referendum, potentially reshaping the United Kingdom’s constitutional landscape. Conversely, a shortfall would force the party to negotiate with other parties or pursue a different strategy.

Watch for the Friday afternoon results from the swing constituencies, especially those in Aberdeen and Glasgow, as they will signal whether the SNP has secured the numbers needed to move forward with a new independence referendum.