SNP Near Majority as Reform UK Poised to Become Scotland’s Second‑Largest Party

Context Final Survation polling for the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP as the clear front‑runner but lacking the 65 seats needed for an outright majority in the 129‑member Scottish Parliament. The poll combines constituency results (first‑past‑the‑post) and regional list results (proportional representation) to produce a seat forecast.

Key Facts - The SNP is projected to secure 59 seats, six short of a majority. About 51 of those would come from constituency wins, with the remainder from the regional list. - Reform UK, which held no seats in 2022 and did not contest 2021, is forecast to win 18 seats, making it the second‑largest party ahead of Labour’s 17 seats and the Greens’ 16 seats. - The SNP and Greens together would hold roughly 75 seats, guaranteeing a pro‑independence majority even without a single‑party SNP government. - On the constituency vote, the SNP leads with 39% of the vote, Labour trails at 19%, Reform UK at 17%, Conservatives at 12% and Liberal Democrats at 10%. - Reform UK’s support is concentrated in social‑renter and deprived areas of south‑west Scotland, Ayrshire and parts of the North East, allowing it to win list seats in every region and potentially two constituency seats, notably Cunninghame North. - The Conservative vote has collapsed outside a few southern seats, reducing their chances in traditional strongholds such as Eastwood and Galloway and West Dumfries.

What It Means With the SNP falling short of a majority, a minority administration will need backing from other parties. The Greens, holding 16 seats, are positioned to provide confidence‑and‑supply support, delivering a stable pro‑independence bloc of about 75 seats. Reform UK’s rise reshapes the right‑of‑centre landscape, siphoning votes from the Conservatives and creating new constituency battles, especially in Cunninghame North and Airdrie. Labour remains the third‑largest force, but its influence will be limited unless it can form a coalition with the Greens or other smaller parties.

Looking Ahead Watch the final vote count in marginal constituencies such as Cunninghame North and Airdrie, and monitor post‑election negotiations that will determine whether the SNP secures a formal partnership with the Greens or faces a more fragmented parliament.