Severe thunderstorms soak southeast Australia as El Niño signs emerge
Heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail hit southeastern Australia as Bureau of Meteorology warns of storms; climate models show central Pacific warming toward El Niño by winter.
TL;DR
Severe thunderstorms have already dropped up to 70 mm of rain across southeastern Australia, and forecasters warn of more heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail. Climate models show the central tropical Pacific warming enough to reach El Niño thresholds by winter.
Context
A low‑pressure system over South Australia is drawing moist air from the tropics down the eastern seaboard, priming the region for intense storms. The Bureau of Meteorology issued the warning on Tuesday afternoon, noting the combination of the low pressure and a tropical moisture plume.
Key Facts
In the 24 hours to Tuesday afternoon, rainfall reached 60 mm in New South Wales, 70 mm in Tasmania, 20 mm in Victoria and 40 mm in southeast South Australia. Meteorologist Ilana Cherny said damaging winds and large hail could accompany the rain in parts of southern Queensland. She added that severe weather warnings were in place for eastern Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday, with storms expected to move from central west NSW toward Victoria by Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, satellite and buoy observations show the central tropical Pacific has warmed about 0.8 °C above the long‑term average. The Bureau’s ACCESS‑S seasonal model, which assimilates ocean‑atmosphere data and runs ensemble forecasts, indicates sea surface temperatures will exceed the 0.5 °C El Niño threshold by winter (June‑August). All reviewed models agree, projecting at least a moderate El Niño, with a chance of a strong event depending on the extent of warming.
What It Means
Heavy rain raises the risk of flash flooding in urban and rural catchments, especially where soils are already saturated. Damaging winds can break branches and disrupt power lines, while large hail threatens crops and vehicles. If El Niño develops as forecast, southern Australia may experience hotter, drier conditions later in spring, altering fire risk and water availability.
Watch for updated Bureau outlooks later this week and any shift in the storm track as the low‑pressure system moves offshore.
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