Secret NSW Docs Show Port Kembla Favoured for Nuclear Sub Base, Flag $10bn Cost and Target Risk

Secret NSW documents reveal Port Kembla as the favoured east coast site for a nuclear‑powered submarine base, highlighting a projected $426 million state benefit alongside warnings of over $10 billion in costs and heightened military‑target risk. Residents are likely to see the base as a risk due to onboard reactors and its potential as a target for adversaries.

Context The NSW cabinet office and premier’s department prepared documents that name Port Kembla – roughly 75 km south of Sydney – as the preferred east coast site for a nuclear‑powered submarine base. Officials have not announced an official site, but Brisbane, Newcastle and Port Kembla remain the main contenders. The federal government announced in March 2022 its intention to build an east coast base for the submarines it will acquire under the AUKUS agreement, and it has committed to deciding the location by the end of 2023, aiming for operation by 2040.

Key Facts A NSW cost‑benefit analysis estimates the base would deliver $426 million in economic benefit to the state through infrastructure upgrades and high‑paying jobs. Defence estimates that building the facilities and infrastructure will require more than $10 billion for the future nuclear‑powered submarine fleet, including the east coast base. The documents quote residents’ likely perception: they would view the base as a risk because of the submarines’ onboard nuclear reactors and the base’s potential as a military target.

What It Means While the projected $426 million boost could improve local infrastructure and create skilled jobs, the same analysis notes possible downsides: some residents may need to relocate, local businesses could suffer, and road and rail traffic might worsen. The documents also warn that the base’s proximity to populated areas raises concerns about environmental disaster risk, likening public perception to that of a nuclear power station. Observers will watch the federal site‑selection process, due by the end of 2023, and any subsequent community consultations or environmental assessments that could shape the final decision.