Satellite Images Show Gezira Wheat Output Slashed 58% Amid Sudan War

TL;DR: Satellite imagery confirms a 58% plunge in Gezira wheat output and widespread industrial damage, underscoring the war’s toll on Sudan’s food security.

The conflict that erupted in April 2023 between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has turned Sudan’s central irrigated plains into a barren landscape. Sentinel‑2 satellite photos, analyzed with the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), show the once‑green grids of the Gezira Scheme fading to dust.

During the 2023‑2024 season, wheat harvests in Gezira fell by 58 percent. The decline stems from systematic sabotage: RSF fighters diverted canals, flooded fields, and repurposed harvested grain as makeshift bridges. The al‑Haiwawa canal, serving 2,360 farmers across 48 villages, suffered some of the worst damage.

Farmers face soaring input costs. Hussein Saad, a former farmer and alliance member, reported fertilizer prices jumping from 20,000 to 120,000 Sudanese pounds per 50 kg bag, while tractor rentals tripled. These spikes cripple planting decisions and push smallholders toward abandonment.

Industrial capacity crumbled alongside crops. Sudan’s industry minister disclosed that 126 large factories and 3,131 small ones in Gezira sustained severe damage. The loss of processing facilities threatens the region’s ability to turn raw grain into flour and other products.

The war also disrupted food aid. RSF looted the national seed bank and emptied World Food Programme warehouses in Wad Madani, which had stored enough grain for 1.5 million people for a month. A telecommunications blackout in early 2024 halted financial transfers, forcing 200 of 300 local soup kitchens to close.

The satellite record shows a brief, fragile rebound after SAF forces reclaimed territory in 2025, but vegetation indices remain far below pre‑war levels. The pattern mirrors similar collapses in the Rahad and Suki schemes of neighboring states, where crop health also deteriorated sharply.

What it means: Sudan’s breadbasket is no longer capable of meeting domestic wheat demand, raising the risk of widespread food insecurity and price spikes. International aid will need to address both agricultural inputs and the reconstruction of processing infrastructure.

Watch for: satellite updates on the recovery of Gezira’s irrigation network and any diplomatic moves that could stabilize the front lines and allow farming to resume.