Ryanair’s CO₂ Emissions Surge 50% Since 2019 as Airlines Sidestep €8.5 Billion in Carbon Costs

Context Transport & Environment (T&E) released a sector‑wide analysis that compares airline‑reported fuel burn and emissions data from 2019 to 2025. The group calculated total CO₂ by converting fuel use into carbon using a standard factor of 3.16 kg CO₂ per kilogram of jet fuel. By aligning airline disclosures with EU aviation statistics, T&E isolated emissions from flights departing European airports.

Key Facts - Ryanair emitted 16.6 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025 from European departures, a volume equal to the entire greenhouse‑gas output of Croatia. - This figure represents a 50% increase over the airline’s 2019 emissions, the last full year before COVID‑19 disruptions. - Low‑cost carriers drove most of the 2025 rise, with European flights generating 195 million tonnes of CO₂, making aviation the fastest‑growing emission source in the EU. - Two‑thirds of aviation emissions escape the EU Emissions Trading System because the scheme only covers intra‑European routes; long‑haul flights remain largely untaxed. - Ryanair pays roughly €50 per tonne of CO₂ under the current system, while legacy carriers such as Lufthansa pay about €20 per tonne, and Gulf airlines pay near zero. - T&E analyst Giacomo Miele warned that airlines avoided more than €8.5 billion in carbon costs in 2025 by exploiting these loopholes.

What It Means The surge in Ryanair’s emissions underscores a structural flaw in Europe’s carbon‑pricing framework. By limiting the EU Emissions Trading System to short‑haul routes, the policy creates a price disparity that incentivizes growth in low‑cost, high‑frequency services while leaving long‑haul operations largely unpenalised. The resulting revenue gap—estimated at billions of euros—could fund subsidies for sustainable aviation fuels, but the current regime effectively subsidises continued fossil‑fuel use.

If policymakers extend the emissions trading scheme to all departing flights, the aviation sector could face a uniform carbon price, curbing the incentive for unchecked growth. Such a move would also generate significant funds to accelerate the transition to greener fuels and technologies.

Looking ahead, watch for EU legislative proposals on expanding the emissions trading system and for airline responses to potential carbon‑price harmonisation across all routes.