PayPal Q1 2026 Revenue Forecast Up 4.2% to $8.12B, EPS Slides 4.5%

*TL;DR PayPal (PYPL) forecasts Q1 2026 revenue of $8.12 B, up 4.2% YoY, while earnings per share fall 4.5% to $1.27.

Context PayPal will release its first‑quarter results on May 5 before the market opens. The company has been shifting from a pure payments processor to a broader commerce platform, leveraging data tools to grow merchant relationships and consumer usage.

Key Facts - Consensus revenue estimate stands at $8.12 B, a 4.23% increase from the same quarter last year. - Expected earnings per share (EPS) are $1.27, down 4.51% YoY. - Transaction margin, the profit share from processing fees, is projected at 45.89%, slipping from 47.70% a year earlier. - Transaction revenue is slated at $7.31 B, a 4.2% rise, while value‑added services should bring $783.6 M, up 1.1%. - Total Payment Volume (TPV) – the dollar amount of transactions processed – is forecast at $447.9 B, a 7.4% gain. - Active accounts are expected to reach 439.8 M, modestly above 436 M last year, and transaction count should rise to 6.316 B. - PYPL shares have climbed 22.9% over the past three months, outpacing the S&P 500’s 5.5% gain and the Zacks Financial Transaction Services index’s 9.1% decline. - The stock trades at a forward 12‑month P/E of 9.22×, well below the industry average of 16.76× and the 23‑24× multiples of Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA).

What It Means Revenue growth suggests PayPal’s expanded merchant tools and higher TPV are gaining traction. However, the falling EPS and transaction margin indicate rising costs or pricing pressure, likely from intensified competition and macro‑economic headwinds. The low valuation multiples could attract value‑oriented investors, but the negative earnings‑per‑share outlook may temper enthusiasm.

Looking Ahead Investors will watch the May 5 earnings release for clues on margin recovery, cost management, and whether the broader commerce strategy can sustain earnings growth.