One Nation poised to win Farrer as Liberals and Nationals slump to 20% of vote

*TL;DR One Nation is set to capture the Farrer seat with a projected 41% primary vote; the Liberal‑National coalition managed only 20% combined.

Context The Farrer by‑election, a rural seat held by the Coalition for eight decades, concluded after a night of counting that included postal and pre‑poll votes. Voters could request a postal ballot, and 12.7% of enrolments did so; 8.0% of those ballots were returned, giving a 63.3% return rate.

Key Facts - The Liberal and National parties together secured just 20% of the primary vote, a historic low for a seat they have dominated since 1946. - One Nation candidate David Farley is projected to finish with about 41% of the primary vote, putting him well ahead of all rivals. - Independent Michelle Milthorpe is on track for roughly 28% of the primary vote, leaving her more than 10 points behind Farley even before preferences are distributed. - Preference flows—voters’ secondary choices—are expected to favor Farley, reinforcing his lead. - Postal voting contributed a modest share of the total, with a 63.3% return rate indicating moderate engagement among those who applied.

What It Means The collapse of the Liberal‑National vote to 20% signals a severe erosion of rural support that has underpinned the Coalition’s federal presence for generations. If One Nation secures the seat, it will add a critical foothold in a region traditionally resistant to third‑party breakthroughs. The result also narrows the Coalition’s path to a majority, potentially forcing any future government to negotiate with One Nation for confidence and supply. Labor, while not a contender in this race, may find its own prospects altered by a reshaped opposition landscape.

Looking Ahead Watch the final preference distribution and any legal challenges that could affect the count, as well as upcoming by‑elections where the Coalition’s rural strategy will be tested again.