Mexico's 'Kingpin Strategy' Fuels Cartel Violence and Disappearances, Activists Warn

Mexico's decades-long campaign against organized crime centers on the 'kingpin strategy,' targeting cartel leadership. This approach aims to dismantle criminal networks by decapitating their command structures, a tactic often supported by intense pressure from the United States.

However, this strategy often triggers internal power struggles and increased violence, as seen following the July 2024 arrest of Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada in Texas. Homicides in Sinaloa escalated sharply, jumping from 44 in August 2024 to 142 in September 2024. Femicides in the region also surged, increasing 135 percent from 31 in 2024 to 73 in 2025, reflecting a broader rise in insecurity.

Activists on the ground report a direct link between these operations and civilian suffering. Maria Isabel Cruz, who advocates for missing persons, states, "I don’t know if there’s really a strategy. They're fighting the leaders, but everything at the bottom remains, and it’s the ordinary people who pay the price." This perspective highlights how leadership arrests fail to address the underlying structures of criminal organizations, leading to fragmentation rather than dissolution.

This fragmentation can ignite brutal turf wars, as evidenced by the February killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio 'El Mencho' Oseguera Cervantes, which resulted in 70 immediate deaths and widespread disruption across 20 states. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum has continued the kingpin approach, partly in response to US demands for aggressive action against cartels, including threats of tariffs and military intervention.

The ongoing reliance on the kingpin strategy, despite its documented consequences, points to the complex interplay of domestic policy and international pressure. Future developments will reveal whether Mexico's government re-evaluates its primary approach to cartel violence and its impact on civilian populations.