Liberal Anthony Marsh Leads Early Vote in Nepean While Independent Takes Red Hill

Context The Nepean by‑election saw 23,644 early ballots cast, with 5 % marked informal (invalid). Early voting totals are reported as a single figure because the Victorian Electoral Commission’s system aggregates the three early‑voting centres. Results continue to roll in as each counting centre finalises its count.

Key Facts Marsh received 14,390 early votes after the distribution of preferences, translating to 64.1 % of the early total and a swing of +7.2 points from the previous election. In Red Hill, the preferences count gave Hutchinson 356 votes, just enough for a 50.2 % share, while the Liberal candidate fell to 49.8 % after a –3.7‑point swing. The Red Hill centre recorded 734 votes, with 25 informal ballots (3.4 %).

What It Means Marsh’s strong early performance suggests the Liberal Party retains solid backing in Nepean despite a modest informal vote rate. The independent win in Red Hill indicates voter willingness to shift away from the major parties when preferences are allocated. Both outcomes will shape party strategies ahead of the final count and upcoming state elections.

Watch for the full declaration results and any further swings as remaining centres report.