Science & Climate4 hrs ago

Kepler’s 1607 Sunspot Sketch Clarifies Maunder Minimum Onset

Kepler’s 1607 sunspot sketch shows the Sun ending a normal cycle before the Maunder Minimum and pushes the earliest instrumental record back three years.

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Based on Kepler’s observation, researchers suggested the cycle-boundary range between Solar Cycles −14 and −13 as indicated in red lines, in comparison with the sunspot (group) number reconstructions based on the sunspot records in blue curve (Svalgaard & Schatten, 2016) and tree-ring 14C data in black curve (Usoskin et al., 2021) and green curve (Miyahara et al., 2021). The authors' reconstruction contradicts controversial claim that an extremely short and an extremely lengthened solar cycles (green) and conforms to the regular solar cycles (black). (Credit: Dr. Hisashi Hayakawa)

Based on Kepler’s observation, researchers suggested the cycle-boundary range between Solar Cycles −14 and −13 as indicated in red lines, in comparison with the sunspot (group) number reconstructions based on the sunspot records in blue curve (Svalgaard & Schatten, 2016) and tree-ring 14C data in black curve (Usoskin et al., 2021) and green curve (Miyahara et al., 2021). The authors’ reconstruction contradicts controversial claim that an extremely short and an extremely lengthened solar cycles (green) and conforms to the regular solar cycles (black). (

Credit: : Dr. Hisashi Hayakawa)Original source

Kepler’s 1607 sunspot sketch shows the Sun finishing a regular cycle just before the Maunder Minimum began. It also pushes the earliest instrumental sunspot record back three years before the first telescopic sightings in 1610.

Context

The Maunder Minimum lasted from 1645 to 1715, a span of about 70 years when sunspots vanished and solar activity dropped sharply. Sunspots are dark patches that signal strong magnetic fields and can precede flares. Before telescopes became common, astronomers had few ways to spot them, leaving a gap in the solar record.

Key Facts

Johannes Kepler used a camera obscura in 1607 to draw sunspots, thinking at first they were a transit of Mercury. A team from Nagoya University re‑examined the sketch and, in *The Astrophysical Journal Letters*, confirmed the marks were genuine sunspots. Hisashi Hayakawa, the lead researcher, noted that Kepler’s non‑telescopic record had previously been treated only as a historical curiosity and never used for quantitative solar‑cycle work.

The analysis placed Kepler’s observations at the end of Solar Cycle ‑13, just a few years before the Maunder Minimum started. Because telescopic sunspot drawings did not appear until 1610, Kepler’s work predates those by about three years.

What It Means

By anchoring a concrete sunspot count to 1607, scientists can tighten reconstructions of solar cycles leading into the Maunder Minimum. This reduces reliance on tree‑ring data, which records cosmic‑ray fluctuations but can be noisy and uncertain. The Kepler sketch offers a direct, dated anchor point that improves the timeline of the Sun’s transition from regular cycles to a grand minimum.

Watch for future studies that combine Kepler’s drawing with other archival observations to test whether the Sun’s magnetic behavior changed gradually or abruptly as it entered the Maunder Minimum.

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