Jefferies Forecasts India's Renewable Capacity to Hit 359 GW by FY25-30 Amid Rising Power Demand

TL;DR Jefferies projects India's renewable energy capacity will reach 359 gigawatts (GW) by fiscal year 2025-30, a period marked by significant increases in national power demand. The nation navigates this energy transition while simultaneously bolstering traditional power sources to ensure grid stability.

**Context** India's power demand is set for a substantial rebound, with projections indicating a six percent growth rate by fiscal year 2027. This increase stems from normalizing industrial activity and specific climate patterns, particularly the anticipated 2026 monsoon season. Lower rainfall typically raises power demand from residential and agricultural segments, which collectively account for 40-45% of India's total power consumption. These conditions drive higher cooling product usage in households and increased irrigation equipment use in agriculture. This heightened demand creates an imperative for robust energy supply.

**Key Facts** Jefferies forecasts India's renewable energy capacity will reach 359 GW by fiscal year 2025-30. This projection underscores a significant shift towards green energy sources. Government initiatives like the PM Suryaghar rooftop solar program, which achieved approximately 9 GW of installations in fiscal year 2026, and the PM Kusum agri-pump scheme, adding 7.5 GW, contribute to this expansion. These programs often rely on Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) cells, boosting domestic manufacturing. Alongside this, India plans to add 97 GW of thermal power capacity by 2034-35, an expansion from 247 GW at the end of fiscal year 2025. This dual strategy reflects the country's commitment to meeting escalating energy needs through both sustainable and conventional means.

**What It Means** India's energy sector faces increasing demand pressures from both economic growth and climate-related factors. The strategic focus on expanding both renewable and thermal capacities highlights a balanced effort to secure energy supply during this transition. This approach aims to support robust industrial activity and agricultural requirements across the nation. The emphasis on domestic manufacturing for solar components also points to broader economic and energy independence goals. What to watch next is how India balances these ambitious capacity additions with grid modernization efforts to ensure consistent power delivery, especially as the mix of energy sources evolves.