Heat risk for 2026 World Cup doubles since 1994, with a quarter of matches facing dangerous temperatures

Context The 2026 men’s World Cup will be staged across 16 venues in the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19. FIFA already requires a cooling break in each half when heat stress rises, but scientists say the baseline danger has grown. Climate experts note that global warming has pushed the likelihood of extreme heat upward since the last U.S.‑hosted cup in 1994.

Key Facts World Weather Attribution estimates that 26 of the 104 scheduled games could see a WBGT of at least 26 °C. At that threshold, the international footballers’ union advises cooling breaks to limit heat strain. Five matches are projected to exceed 28 °C WBGT, a level that may warrant postponement. In contrast, the 1994 edition would have produced about 21 games at the 26 °C level, indicating the risk has nearly doubled. Of the 26 high‑heat matches, 17 are slated for stadiums equipped with cooling systems, while the remainder will rely on natural ventilation. Three venues—Dallas, Houston and Atlanta—feature full air‑conditioning. The final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey carries a one-in-eight chance of reaching 26 °C WBGT and a 2.7% probability of hitting 28 °C.

What It Means Players and outdoor fans face heightened danger because extreme heat impairs the body’s ability to cool itself, increasing the risk of exhaustion and heat‑related illness. While cooling breaks and stadium‑level mitigation can reduce on‑field threats, spectators in open areas lack medical supervision. UN Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell warned that the danger has doubled since 1994 and urged faster clean‑energy action to protect the sport. Friederike Otto of World Weather Attribution added that both athletes and fans are now more exposed to extreme conditions. Looking ahead, tournament organizers will need to monitor real‑time WBGT data and be ready to adjust schedules or relocate matches if heat levels climb beyond safe limits.