Fact check: Liberals’ Nepean byelection claim mostly true, one detail off

Claim 1 – After about 80% of votes were counted, Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh had 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% of the two‑candidate preferred vote. Evidence: The Victorian Electoral Commission lists Marsh with 38.53% of first‑preference votes. The Guardian reported Marsh’s primary share at 38.5% and his two‑candidate preferred share at 63.4% with roughly 80% of ballots tallied. Verdict: true. Analysis: The official count and a reputable news outlet agree on the figures, giving high confidence.

Claim 2 – Labor did not run a candidate, the Liberals retained the seat, but suffered a swing of close to 10% against them on the primary vote. Evidence: The Guardian noted that Labor opted not to field a candidate and described a swing of nearly 10% against the Liberals on the primary vote. Verdict: true. Analysis: A single reliable source confirms both parts of the claim, with no contradictory evidence.

Claim 3 – The byelection followed the resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth, and the Liberals have held the seat since its creation except for a four‑year Labor period. Evidence: Reports say the byelection was triggered by Groth’s resignation but do not label him deputy leader. Parliamentary records show Groth was a backbencher. The Nepean seat has been Liberal‑held since its 2002 creation, with Labor winning it from 2014 to 2018. Verdict: mixed. Analysis: The resignation and the historical Liberal dominance are correct, but the deputy‑leader claim is false, making the statement partially accurate.

Watch for how the Nepean swing influences Liberal strategy in the upcoming November Victorian state election.