Fact check: Liberals claim victory in Nepean byelection ahead of Victorian state poll

Claim 1 After about 80% of votes were counted, Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh received 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% of the two‑candidate‑preferred vote.

Evidence The Victorian Electoral Commission’s provisional results show Marsh with 14,927 primary votes, which is 38.53% of the total 40,612 votes counted. Turnout was 79.77% of enrolment, matching the “approximately 80%” statement. The ABC article noted Marsh had around 40% of the primary vote and was projected to win. No source provided the two‑candidate‑preferred percentage.

Verdict Mostly true – the primary vote and turnout are verified, but the two‑candidate‑preferred figure cannot be confirmed.

Analysis The primary vote and turnout align with VEC data and ABC reporting. Because the two‑candidate‑preferred share is absent from the evidence, that part of the claim remains unverified, leading to a mostly_true rating.

Claim 2 One Nation’s Darren Hercus received 24.7% of the primary vote and independent Tracee Hutchison received 21.3%.

Evidence VEC lists Hercus with 9,556 votes (24.66%) and Hutchison with 8,239 votes (21.26%). Rounded to one decimal place these match the claimed percentages. The ABC article also noted each candidate had just over 20% of the primary vote.

Verdict True – both candidates’ primary vote percentages are directly supported by VEC results and corroborated by ABC reporting.

Analysis The VEC data provides precise figures that round to the claimed values, and the ABC report independently confirms the candidates were just over 20% each. No contradictory evidence appears.

Claim 3 The Labor Party did not nominate a candidate, and the Liberal Party suffered an approximate 10% swing against it on the primary vote compared to the previous election.

Evidence The ABC article explicitly states Labor opted not to field a candidate and that the Liberals retained the seat but experienced a close to 10% swing against them on the primary vote.

Verdict True – the absence of a Labor candidate and the near‑10% Liberal swing are directly stated in the ABC reporting.

Analysis The ABC source gives a clear, direct statement for both parts of the claim. No contradictory evidence is present in the provided materials.

What to watch next: how the Nepean swing and One Nation’s performance influence voter sentiment in the upcoming Victorian state election in November.