Exit Polls Show BJP Poised for Third Assam Term as Gogoi Turns Stateward

*TL;DR Exit polls put the BJP ahead for a third consecutive term in Assam, with Congress vulnerable and Gaurav Gogoi contesting the Jorhat seat after moving to state politics.

Context Assam voters will count ballots on May 4 for all 126 assembly seats. The incumbent BJP, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, seeks to extend its rule, a feat it has not achieved since the Congress era ended under former chief minister Tarun Gogoi. The state, once a Congress stronghold, has seen the saffron party expand its footprint under leaders Sarbananda Sonowal and Sarma.

Key Facts - Exit polls released after voting closed show the BJP holding a decisive edge over the opposition Congress, which now appears vulnerable across multiple constituencies. - Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s central face in Assam, is contesting his traditional stronghold of Jalukbari against Congress candidate Bidisha Neog, a race watched for its symbolic value. - Gaurav Gogoi, son of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi, has left national politics to run from Jorhat. The BJP counters him with Hitendra Nath Goswami, making the seat one of the most closely monitored contests. - Other high‑profile battles include Congress leader Debabrata Saikia defending Nazira against BJP’s Mayur Borgohain, and senior Congress figure Ripun Bora facing BJP’s Ganesh Kumar Limbu in Barchalla. - In Golaghat, former Congress member Ajanta Neog, now a BJP minister, squares off with Congress candidate Bitupan Saikia.

What It Means If the exit polls translate into actual results, the BJP will secure a third straight term, cementing its dominance in a state that has shifted dramatically since the end of Congress rule. A continued BJP win would reinforce Himanta Biswa Sarma’s position as a key regional leader and could shape the party’s strategy for the 2029 national elections. Conversely, a strong showing by Congress, especially in seats like Jorhat where Gaurav Gogoi is betting on a state‑level comeback, could signal a resurgence for the party and reshape Assam’s political landscape. Voters’ final verdict on May 4 will determine whether the BJP’s consolidation holds or whether Congress can mount a credible challenge.

What to watch next The official count on May 4 will confirm whether exit‑poll projections hold, and early results from swing seats such as Jorhat and Jalukbari will indicate the likely balance of power in Assam’s next assembly.