EU Aviation Emissions Exceed 2019 Levels as Ryanair’s Carbon Footprint Rises 50%

TL;DR: European aviation emissions have risen above 2019 levels, mainly due to growth at low‑cost carrier Ryanair. Its carbon footprint is now about 50 % higher than in 2019, while passenger numbers jumped from 140 million to over 200 million in 2025.

After a brief dip during the pandemic, Europe’s skies are busier than ever. The increase comes as low‑cost carriers add flights and fill seats at a faster pace than legacy airlines.

Transport & Environment, a Brussels‑based clean‑transport NGO, analysed flight schedules, aircraft types and fuel‑burn data using the ICAO emissions methodology. They found that Ryanair’s total carbon output in 2025 was roughly half again what it was in 2019.

The same analysis shows Ryanair carried more than 200 million passengers in 2025, up from 140 million in 2019. That passenger surge accounts for most of the airline’s higher emissions, even though its newer fleet is more fuel‑efficient per seat.

Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) caps carbon for flights within the region but excludes long‑haul routes, which produce the largest share of aviation CO₂. Analysts say the current design lets short‑haul growth offset climate gains elsewhere.

What to watch next: EU proposals to extend the ETS to long‑haul flights, upcoming ICAO updates to the CORSIA offset scheme, and Ryanair’s fleet‑renewal plans that could alter its per‑passenger emissions trajectory.