Croatia’s post-Dalić rebuild exposed as Spain win in Split

Croatia’s 2–1 home defeat by Spain was not a straightforward account of one side dominating the other: Croatia had fewer than a third of possession, yet matched Spain’s shot total and edged the expected-goals figure. The result still leaves them bottom of Group A3, with three points from four matches, while Spain have 12 and have qualified for the quarter-finals.

Ivan Perišić put Croatia ahead in the 17th minute. Mikel Merino equalised in the 61st and scored again in the 88th. Spain controlled the ball, with 72 per cent possession to Croatia’s 28, and won six corners to three. But the home side had 10 shots to Spain’s 10, five on target to Spain’s three, and four big chances to Spain’s three. Croatia’s xG was 1.17, marginally above Spain’s 1.09.

Those figures complicate any simple description of Croatia being overwhelmed. They found ways to threaten without much of the ball, but did not turn those opportunities into enough to take a point. The numbers do not establish why Merino’s goals settled the match, or whether Croatia’s attacking threat faded after the break. They do show that possession alone does not explain the defeat.

Dalić stepped down in July after Croatia’s World Cup round-of-32 exit to Portugal, ending a tenure that included second place at the 2018 World Cup, third in 2022 and a runners-up finish in the 2023 Nations League. The achievements set a high bar for what comes next. But the available figures cannot identify how many members of those teams remain, or isolate the effects of squad turnover from other causes. The new period is a question for the next matches, not a settled explanation for this result.

There is a useful, if imperfect, reference point in Croatia’s recent record under Dalić. In friendlies in 2024, they won all four matches, averaging 3.0 points per game. In 2026 friendlies under him, they recorded two wins and two defeats, averaging 1.5 points per game. Those are separate friendly records, not like-for-like measures of the current Nations League campaign, and they do not show that the manager’s departure caused the current results. The 2026 Nations League sample is only four matches: Croatia have one win and three defeats.

The shift in Croatia’s approach against Spain was pronounced even against their own earlier 2026 matches. They completed 82 passes in the opposition half, compared with an average of 173 across those earlier games, and had 28 per cent possession against an earlier average of 44.2. That is evidence of a much more restricted performance here, rather than proof of a season-long change. Croatia’s 4-5-1 and Spain’s 4-3-3 offer context, but the figures alone do not show whether the difference came from tactics, personnel or Spain’s pressure.

The defeat follows Croatia’s 0–7 loss to England on 3 October, after which the team had little time before Spain’s visit. Spain arrived with a 41-match unbeaten run and won despite conceding first. Their record and qualification underline the scale of the challenge; Croatia’s results make the rebuild urgent, but four Nations League matches are too small a base on which to pronounce its direction. The next tests will show whether Croatia can restore more of the possession and forward presence seen in their earlier 2026 games, while making their chances count.

- [FotMob](https://www.fotmob.com) - [sports.yahoo.com](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nations-spain-stay-unbeaten-qualify-203600294.html) - [africa.espn.com](https://africa.espn.com/football/team-stats/_/gameId/401861137/league/uefa.nations) - [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/10/6/croatia-spain-uefa-nations-league-yamal-modric-format-teams) - [nytimes.com](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7421573/2026/07/08/zlatko-dalic-croatia-world-cup-manager/) - [espn.com](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49305676/zlatko-dali%C4%87-steps-croatia-boss-world-cup-exit)