China Extends Zero‑Tariff Regime to 53 African Nations, Excluding Eswatini

Context Beijing announced that, starting Friday, all African states except Eswatini will enjoy duty‑free access to Chinese markets. The policy, first introduced for 33 least‑developed nations, now covers 53 countries and is set to run until 30 April 2028. Eswatini remains excluded because it maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province.

Key Facts - The zero‑tariff regime eliminates import duties on African goods entering China, a move China touts as the first unilateral duty‑free treatment for an entire continent. - Africa’s trade deficit with China rose 65 % year‑on‑year to roughly $102 bn, driven by Chinese exports of manufactured goods and African exports of raw minerals and oil. - Lauren Johnston, senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute, says China is positioning itself as a trade‑liberalising, Africa‑friendly partner, contrasting its approach with the United States, which imposed tariffs of up to 30 % on some African products under the Trump administration. - Analysts note that tariffs are rarely the main barrier for African exporters; structural constraints such as limited industrial capacity, weak logistics and reliance on unprocessed commodities persist. - Experts expect modest short‑term gains for countries that already have export capacity—particularly in agriculture, mining and logistics—while long‑term benefits depend on diversification and value‑chain upgrades. - Consumer trends in China, including rising demand for coffee, nuts and avocados, could open new niches for African producers if they can meet quality and volume requirements.

What It Means The duty‑free policy may boost agricultural exports from nations like Kenya, where avocado and coffee sectors stand to gain. However, the widening $102 bn deficit underscores that Chinese imports continue to outpace African exports. Without parallel investments in processing facilities and infrastructure, the tariff removal alone is unlikely to close the gap.

For Eswatini, exclusion appears political rather than economic, potentially prompting the country to seek further concessions from Taiwan. Across the continent, governments face a choice: leverage improved market access to drive industrial policy, or risk entrenching a pattern of raw‑material exports and manufactured imports.

Looking ahead, monitor how African exporters adapt to Chinese demand shifts and whether Beijing extends or modifies the zero‑tariff regime beyond 2028.