Canada's 2024 emissions drop was minimal, data confirms

**TL;DR** All three claims are true according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2024 National Inventory Report.

**Claim 1** Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 0.3% in 2024 relative to 2023, totaling 685 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent.

**Evidence** The National Inventory Report states that 2024 emissions were 685 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent, a drop of 2.2 megatonnes (‑0.3%) from the revised 2023 figure. The Canadian Press article repeats the same percentage and total.

**Verdict** True.

**Analysis** The decline is calculated by subtracting the 2024 total from the 2023 total, dividing by the 2023 value, and multiplying by 100. The methodology follows the UNFCCC reporting guidelines used in the inventory, which tracks all sectors and converts gases to CO₂ equivalents using global warming potentials.

**Claim 2** Oil and gas production represents 30% of Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions.

**Evidence** The report’s sector breakdown shows oil and gas accounting for 30 percent of the national total, a figure also quoted in the Canadian Press coverage.

**Verdict** True.

**Analysis** Emissions from each sector are summed; the oil and gas share is derived by dividing its emissions by the national total and multiplying by 100. The inventory uses facility‑level data and engineering models to estimate upstream and downstream releases.

**Claim 3** In 2024, Canada's emissions were 10.3% lower than in 2005, a cumulative reduction of 78 million tonnes over the 21‑year period.

**Evidence** The inventory notes a 10.3 percent reduction from 2005 levels, equating to 78 megatonnes less. The Canadian Press article mirrors these numbers.

**Verdict** True.

**Analysis** The percentage change is calculated as (2024 emissions − 2005 emissions) / 2005 emissions × 100. The absolute difference of 78 megatonnes is obtained by subtracting the 2024 total from the 2005 baseline. Both calculations follow the standard inventory approach, which adjusts for methodological updates across the time series.

**What to watch next** Environment and Climate Change Canada will release its 2025 projections later this year, indicating whether planned oil‑and‑gas methane rules and industrial carbon pricing can accelerate the downward trend.