Can four ScotWind floating wind projects survive the AR8 auction clock?

Industry insiders cited by The Scotsman say the sector is now trying to build support for four projects in the hope they can actually be constructed.

The same insiders say SNP ministers oversold a promised £50 billion boost to the economy that followed the "sugar rush" after the Scottish Government announced world-leading floating offshore wind ambitions almost five years ago through the ScotWind process.

The ambition has since been reset upward. The Scottish Government raised its offshore wind target to 40GW of new capacity by 2040, up from a previous 8-11GW by 2030.

The other timeline runs through the UK's subsidy machinery. The eighth Contracts for Difference allocation round opens for applications on 20 July 2026 and closes on 7 August 2026. Administrative Strike Prices are unchanged from the previous round: £271/MWh for floating offshore wind, and the same for a new "Other Deepwater Offshore Wind" category, roughly £288/MWh in 2026 prices. AR8 also adds an extra delivery year for floating and deepwater projects. An indicative timetable runs from June 2026 to spring 2027, with key statutory notices due 6 July 2026.

Whether that design makes the surviving ScotWind projects bankable is the open question. The UK remains a major offshore wind market, with about 16.6GW operational and 11.7GW under construction, roughly 20 percent of global capacity, forecast to reach 36.8GW by end-2030. But a 2025 Offshore Energies UK report warned the UK would miss its 2050 net-zero goal without action on price inflation, capital costs and the supply chain.