Bitcoin’s Price Tracks Fiat Liquidity, Hayes Says, Not Regulation

Bitcoin’s value tracks the supply of fiat money, not regulatory shifts, according to Arthur Hayes, while Zcash surged over 450% in the past year.

Hayes spoke at Consensus Miami 2026, stating that Bitcoin’s fair value depends solely on the number of fiat units in circulation and the pace of their creation. He emphasized that increases in fiat printing directly lift Bitcoin’s price, independent of political or regulatory developments.

As of early June 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $27,200, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $530 billion. Over the preceding seven days, BTC rose about 1.8 %. Meanwhile, Zcash (ZEC) posted a gain exceeding 450 % over the last 12 months, outpacing most major crypto assets.

Hayes pointed to the U.S. M2 money supply, which expanded approximately 5 % year‑over‑year, as a driver of Bitcoin’s ascent. He argued that when more fiat chases a fixed‑supply asset like Bitcoin, the asset’s purchasing power in fiat terms increases.

The implication is that investors monitoring Bitcoin should watch fiat‑liquidity indicators—central‑bank balance‑sheet changes, fiscal stimulus, and broad money‑supply metrics—rather than regulatory news alone.

Next, watch for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming balance‑sheet report and any major shifts in global money‑supply growth, as these could signal the next move in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.