Betting Bot Flags Ausar Thompson Over 3.5 Assists as Top NBA Pick for May 7

The Basketball Forever bot ran thousands of simulations on the May 7 NBA slate, ranking player props and spread bets by expected value. The algorithm identified three standout wagers: Thompson’s assist total, Rui Hachimura’s point total, and the Pistons covering a –3.5 spread.

Key facts - Thompson’s over‑3.5 assists line carries +106 odds, implying a 54.6% implied probability. The model projects 4.3 assists, a 6.1% edge over the market. In four of his last five postseason games, he recorded 5, 4, 6, 6 and 1 assists. - Hachimura’s over‑14.5 points line offers +130 odds (48.6% implied probability) with a 5.1% edge. The bot projects 13.9 points, noting he has exceeded the line three times in his last five outings (18, 21, 12, 13, 22 points). - The Pistons –3.5 spread is priced at –110 odds (54.3% implied probability) and carries a 5.3% edge. Detroit covered the spread in four of its previous five meetings with Cleveland.

What it means Thompson’s assist projection hinges on his recent role as a primary ball‑handler for Detroit. The bot’s simulations show the Cavaliers’ defense will force Detroit to distribute the rock, boosting Thompson’s assist opportunities. The 6.1% edge suggests the market underestimates this dynamic, making the bet attractive for value‑seeking bettors.

Hachimura’s over‑14.5 points bet reflects a modest upside. While his projected 13.9 points falls just short of the line, the 5.1% edge indicates the model expects a slight scoring bump, likely from increased minutes against a Thunder defense missing key players.

The Pistons –3.5 spread remains the top team bet. Home‑court advantage and a recent 4‑1 record covering similar spreads give the bot confidence in a 5.3% edge. The –110 odds mean bettors must risk $110 to win $100, a standard price for a moderately favored team.

Overall, the bot’s hierarchy places Thompson’s assist prop at the top of the value hierarchy, followed by Hachimura’s points and the Pistons’ spread. Bettors should weigh the projected edges against bankroll management rules.

What to watch next: Monitor late‑day injury reports, especially for Cleveland’s backcourt, which could shift assist opportunities and spread margins before tip‑off.