AI Supercycle Persists Amid Iran War, Shifting Benefits to Industrial Gas and Domestic Chip Makers

The iShares Semiconductor ETF increased by over 30% from its low point on March 30. As of April 24, 2026, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) had a Year-to-Date Daily Total Return of 53.37%. Its 52-week range stretched from $176.77 to $463.87. This performance validates a strong market recovery, demonstrating sustained investor confidence in the semiconductor sector amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts.

Verdict: True

This substantial year-to-date return confirms the ETF’s significant growth, even as conflict in regions like Iran introduced new supply chain risks. The AI trade has shown unexpected resilience. Demand for AI compute is no longer optional for hyperscalers—large cloud providers like Microsoft and Amazon—who have committed hundreds of billions to data center build-outs. These projects cannot be paused for commodity shocks; instead, the war creates friction, raising costs and compressing timelines at the margin. This fundamental pull of generative AI adoption remains stronger than single supply disruptions.

Semiconductor manufacturing accounts for approximately 25% of global helium consumption. Industry estimates, notably from Linde, the world's largest industrial gas company, consistently place semiconductor manufacturing's share at roughly a quarter of global helium usage. This proportion was increasing even before recent conflicts, fueled by the expansion of AI chip production.

Verdict: Mostly True

While precise, independently verified global helium consumption figures remain limited, consistent industry reporting from a major player like Linde provides strong support for this claim. Helium has become a strategic asset for chip fabrication, moving beyond a mere afterthought, especially after supply disruptions like those affecting Qatari helium facilities. This elevated status gives companies producing, storing, and distributing helium new pricing power. Linde, with its significant helium storage capacity and supply network, emerges as a primary beneficiary.

Linde also has a $10 billion project backlog, of which about two-thirds are linked to clean energy contracts. The company's total project backlog stands at $10 billion. Two-thirds of this backlog, or approximately $6.67 billion, are directly tied to clean energy contracts.

Verdict: True

This backlog illustrates Linde's substantial structural growth, complementing its current helium market advantage. The helium windfall thus acts as a cyclical bonus layered onto a business already positioned for long-term expansion through clean energy initiatives. Such strategic positioning highlights why industrial gas companies are gaining prominence. The broader shift also benefits domestic semiconductor manufacturing, with companies like GlobalFoundries expanding U.S. facilities, supported by initiatives like the CHIPS Act, to address new urgencies around secure supply chains.

Geopolitical events have permanently altered how the technology industry views supply chain concentration. The Iran war, even with a ceasefire, reshapes perceptions of risk. Investors will now closely watch how these shifts further solidify the importance of resilient supply chains and localized production, particularly for critical components like semiconductors.